Academy Awards 2014 - Predictions!

Well, well well...it's that time of the year again. On Sunday, March 2, one of the calendar year's great Gay High Holy Days returns. So get out your play-at-home ballots, drop the cash in your office betting pools, and read on for my predictions.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - "Captain Phillips"
Bradley Cooper - "American Hustle"
Michael Fassbender - "12 Years A Slave"
Jonah Hill - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Jared Leto - "Dallas Buyers Club"

Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Jared Leto
Notes: In a pool of some very big names, an up-and-comer, and a BAFTA Award newbie, this is one of the few categories this year that is actually a lock. You may not have seen "Dallas Buyers Club," but that guy from TV's "My So-Called Life" who won critical praise for "Prefontaine" (seventeen years ago) gives nothing short of a career-defining revelatory performance.

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins - "Blue Jasmine"
Jennifer Lawrence - "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o - "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts - "August: Osage County"
June Squibb - "Nebraska"

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Should Win: June Squibb
Notes: This time, the Golden Globes and BAFTAs got it wrong for awarding the most internationally marketable nominee. But, sorry, Jennifer Lawrence: Lupita Nyong'o was honored by her (Oscar-voting) peers with the SAG award and some other critical prizes. Her role was gut-wrenchingly painful and brutal, but absolutely essential to her film's story. Beyond the sentimental vote, June Squibb also gave her film fascinating depth in humor and complex character, but she will be edged out.

Best Original Song
"Alone Yet Not Alone" - "Alone Yet Not Alone"
"Happy" - "Despicable Me 2"
"Let It Go" - "Frozen"
"The Moon Song" - "Her"
"Ordinary Love" - "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"

Will Win: "Let It Go"
Should Win: "Let It Go"
Notes: You have to be buried under some Polar Vortex glaciers to not know or have seen/heard any fans or YouTube videos covering this epic "I Want" character-defining song. And when Idina Menzel sings it live at the Oscars, the motion picture world will realize why it's so good to cast real musical theater actors in musical movies (animated or not). Sorry, Pharrell and U2: love you both, but co-writer Robert Lopez is going to join the EGOT Club with this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Before Midnight"
"Captain Phillips"
"Philomena"
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Will Win: "12 Years A Slave"
Should Win: "12 Years A Slave"
Notes: This category includes some very compelling written works but transforming an important historical memoir into a vividly emotional drama brings the past to life in heart-breaking fashion.

Best Original Screenplay
"American Hustle"
"Blue Jasmine"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Her"
"Nebraska"

Will Win: The concept behind "Her" was so refreshingly sharp, that it fits every definition of "original..."
Should Win: ...however, the screenplays for "Dallas Buyers Club" and "Nebraska" produced better films, and without a screenplay, a motion picture is nothing.
Notes: Overlooked = "Inside Llewyn Davis," and "All Is Lost."

Best Animated Feature Film
"The Croods"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Ernest & Celestine"
"Frozen"
"The Wind Rises"

Will Win: "Frozen"
Should Win: "Frozen"
Notes: I was disappointed that "Monsters University" was not nominated, but maybe I was biased by my career in higher education that predisposed me to see a lot of reality captured perfectly in a world of make-believe. And if "The Wind Rises" is Hiyao Myazaki's last film, he deserves honorary Oscars for writing and directing some of the best animated features of all time.

Best Documentary Short Subject
"Cavedigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"

Will Win: "The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
Should Win: "The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life" (runner-ups: "Facing Fear" or "Karama Has No Walls"
Notes:If you have not seen any of the nominees, here's all you need to know: "The Lady In Number 6" is about a Holocaust survivor who is over 100 years old and plays the piano. The Oscar goes to...

Best Documentary Feature
"The Act of Killing"
"Cutie and the Boxer"
"Dirty Wars"
"The Square"
"20 Feet From Stardom"

Will Win: "The Act of Killing" was harrowing, frightening, and important.
Should Win: Similarly, "The Square" should be required viewing, but did not leave my stomach in as many knots and "Cutie and the Boxer" was astonishing, but felt unresolved. Both will just miss this award.
Notes: When any of the nominated documentaries are available to you in any form, just make a point of seeing them. They may not all be as fun and cool as "20 Feet From Stardom," but they all deserve your attention.

Best Foreign Language Film
"The Broken Circle Breakdown"
"The Great Beauty"
"The Hunt"
"The Missing Picture"
"Omar"

Will Win: "The Great Beauty" should get the award to add even more shimmer to its stunning visual splendor.
Should Win: "The Hunt" was a far more intriguing story, but dark and sad, so the voters may go for the nominee that feels more classic.
Notes: As with the Documentary Feature category, make it a point to read subtitles and see each of these. These films have artistic qualities that are usually absent in American-made English-language Hollywood productions. And then they get re-made in English a year or two later, usually to disappointing effect, so you're better off seeing the original.

Best Cinematography
"The Grandmaster"
"Gravity"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Nebraska"
"Prisoners"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: I have to say it every year: this is an award for the best camera work, as commanded by the Director of Photography. It is not an award for the prettiest images or most sweeping visual scenery. For the seamless combination of live-action and digitally animated photography, "Gravity" has this one locked down.

Best Costume Design
"American Hustle"
"The Grandmaster"
"The Great Gatsby"
"The Invisible Woman"
"12 Years a Slave"

Will Win: "American Hustle"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Notes: Period dramas usually win this category (especially if they include scenes in some grand ballroom with dozens of people doing some kind of waltz). The 1970s-1980s may be far more recent history than "12 Years a Slave" and "The Invisible Woman" but everyone agrees that the costumes in "American Hustle" secured the look just right, better than the double-sided tape on Amy Adams.

Best Film Editing
"American Hustle"
"Captain Phillips"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Gravity"
"12 Years a Slave"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: This award would complement the cinematography work in "Gravity" because what appear to be minutes-long single camera shots in the movie must surely be the result of masterful editing to make all the special effects work just as envisioned.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa"
"The Lone Ranger"

Will Win: "Dallas Buyers Club"
Should Win: "Dallas Buyers Club"
Notes: Oh come on.  I think we can all agree that "American Hustle" was overlooked in this category, and nobody wants to give any award to either of the other two nominees. So the only viable option is the winner (and also actually deserves it anyway).

Best Original Score
"The Book Thief"
"Gravity"
"Her"
"Philomena"
"Saving Mr. Banks"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Philomena" or "Saving Mr. Banks"
Notes: I'm a sap for the tear-jerkers and "Philomena" and "Saving Mr. Banks" were both either overlooked or will not win other awards, which is a shame because in any other year they would at least be able to release DVDs and Blu-Rays under the banner "Academy Award winner." Alas, this is the year for the score that seems to always be simultaneously fully present while just bubbling under the surface of the movie (even where sound can not exist in the vacuum of space).

Best Production Design
"American Hustle"
"Gravity"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Her"
"12 Years a Slave"

Will Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Notes: I'm prepared to lose this prediction because everyone else seems to be taken with "American Hustle"'s look. But I think "The Great Gatsby" (especially in 3D) had the full realization of a look in costumes, sets, hair, staging, and even digital effects that were as good if not light years better than "American Hustle." Plus, it combined a feeling of historical and familiar ("American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave") with a feeling of imagined future and possibly unreal ("Gravity" and "Her").

Best Animated Short Film
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"

Will Win: "Get A Horse!"
Should Win: "Mr. Hublot"
Notes: This prediction pits my personal favorite against the popular tide.

Best Live Action Short Film
"Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)"
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)"
"Helium"
"Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)"
"The Voorman Problem"

Will Win: "Aquel No Era Yo"
Should Win: "Avant Que De Tout Perdre"
Notes: My gut reaction to the nominees might actually align with popular trends in this category.

Best Sound Editing
"All Is Lost"
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Lone Survivor"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: This is the award for creating sounds, including sounds that do not exist in real experiences. You know: the way the original Godzilla's roar was actually a sound-edited upright bass string being rubbed by a leather glove. This is the category that effects-heavy movies often win, and "Gravity" will take this one, even though "All Is Lost" should be a runner-up (because it told an amazing story with almost no spoken words, but with sounds that had to be edited into the movie in post-production).

Best Sound Mixing
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Lone Survivor"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: Yes, "Gravity"'s technical award sweep continues with the award that recognizes achievement in blending and layering all the recorded sounds and all the invented (or edited, see above) sounds. This category has nothing to do with producing a nice soundtrack, although the musical performances in "Inside Llewyn Davis" were well placed into moments of dialogue and silence, and I wish that movie could take home just one award (and this would be its best chance).

Best Visual Effects
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Iron Man 3"
"The Lone Ranger"
"Star Trek: Into Darkness"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: With the exception of "The Lone Ranger," this is a field of great science fiction and fantasy films. Oh wait. Is "Gravity" nominated? Done. (Overlooked, again: "Captain Phillips," "The Great Gastby," and "All Is Lost.")

Best Director
David O. Russell - "American Hustle"
Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
Alexander Payne - "Nebraska"
Steve McQueen - "12 Years a Slave"
Martin Scorsese - "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Notes: He had the vision, the determination, the tenacity, the inventiveness, and the daring to create a movie that was not just breathtaking, but also a movie that re-defined the limits of large-format 3D film. The man at the helm of "Gravity" fully deserves this.

Best Actress
Amy Adams - "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett - "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock - "Gravity"
Judi Dench - "Philomena"
Meryl Streep - "August: Osage County"

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett or Judi Dench
Notes: I'll repeat my annual awards season rant: I want a woman to receive recognition for a performance in a role that does not include emotional hysterics that are too often unfairly pegged as feminine attributes. But Cate Blanchett (who can do no wrong, in my book) gave a great performance that was sad and funny and desperate and pathetic and complex and twisted. Judi Dench delivered a far more nuanced combination of much of the same. Emma Thompson was overlooked for "Saving Mr. Banks." And "American Hustle" was just way too overrated all-around.

Best Actor
Christian Bale - "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern - "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor - "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey - "Dallas Buyers Club"

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Matthew McCounaghey
Notes: I would also cheer if Chiwetel Ejiofor (the original "Lola" in the movie "Kinky Boots" has come a long way, baby!) or if Bruce Dern won because they were both fantastic. But Matthew McConaughey is as much a revelation in this movie as his co-star Jared Leto, and for once he reveals a character without relying on taking off his clothes. Oh yeah, and have I mentioned that I thought "American Hustle" was overrated? Okay, thanks.

Best Picture
"American Hustle"
"Captain Phillips"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Gravity"
"Her"
"Nebraska"
"Philomena"
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity" or "12 Years a Slave" or "Dallas Buyers Club"
Notes: Yes, I'm cheating and hedging my bet in the biggest category. That's because out of all the nominees, there are three that really stuck with me long after seeing them, even though all of them were great movies to watch. As the little movie that could, "Dallas Buyers Club" (if you can forgive most of Jennifer Garner in it) was really impactful. But in a field as qualified as this one is this year, I had to ponder which movie would I want to be forever known as the one that defined 2013? And I think it has to be "Gravity" - seeing that in the theater (in 3D) felt like I was experiencing an entirely new medium for the first time. And that's why I predict it will get the top honor in an industry that sometimes seems to have no original ideas left in its playbook.

Just remember: if I helped you win the (big) jackpot, I don't ask for a share of the cash, but a simple thanks will do - you're welcome (in advance)! Hope you enjoy the Academy Awards!

(Pre-)Academy Awards 2014

It's a small snub icosicosidodecahedron. Get it? Keyword: "snub."

Before the predictions and the score tally, here is my preliminary list of snubs that were ignored in this year's Oscar nominations:

"Blackfish" (an amazingly influential and important documentary like this should not have been overlooked - is Anheuser-Busch a corporate sponsor of these awards or something?)
Robert Redford and "All Is Lost" (that was a true lesson in acting grit, even with almost no dialogue and no co-stars)
"Fruitvale Station"
"Lee Daniels' The Butler"
Emma Thompson in "Saving Mr. Banks" (maybe even "Tam Honks" and Colin Farrell)
"Bridegroom" (if this played in any L.A./N.Y. theaters before cable/satellite/streaming)
"Inside Llewyn Davis" especially Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan
Tom Hanks in "Captain Phillips"
Joaquin Phoenix in "Her"
"Monsters University"
"Prisoners"
"Blue Jasmine"
Spike Jonze
Paul Greengrass
Will Forte in "Nebraska"
Sarah Polley and "Stories We Tell"
"Before Midnight" (doesn't every great trilogy's final film automatically get nominated, or does that rule only apply to sci-fi and fantasy movies?)

Finally, my judgement on most over-hyped: "American Hustle." In terms of its recent wins at the Golden Globes, I did not find it to be a great drama (could have been a made-for-cable movie), and it was definitely not a comedy or musical. It was a really well designed, but I thought mostly emotionally flat, ensemble drama. Yes, it got the period correct, and there were some funny moments, but that's not enough to make it what I want the movies of 2013 to be remembered for.

Now on to the ballot guessing game...

Tony Awards 2013!

Have I really not posted since the Oscars? Oops. My bad. Well, since June 9 is the Gay High Holy Day, it seems fitting that I return now with my own predictions. To get this blog in the right mood, here is TimeOutNY's list of the 25 best musical performances from the last 44 years of telecasts: 

http://www.timeout.com/newyork/theater/the-25-best-tony-awards-performances

Nominations for the 2013 American Theatre Wing’s Tony Awards®
Presented by The Broadway League and the American Theatre Wing

Best Play

The Assembled Parties

Author:  Richard Greenberg

Producers:  Manhattan Theatre Club, Lynne Meadow, Barry Grove

Lucky Guy

Author:  Nora Ephron

Producers:  Colin Callender, Roy Furman, Arielle Tepper Madover, Roger & William Berlind, Stacey Mindich, Robert Cole & Frederick Zollo, David Mirvish, Daryl Roth, James D. Stern/Douglas L. Meyer, Scott & Brian Zeilinger, Sonia Friedman Productions, The Shubert Organization

The Testament of Mary

Author:  Colm Toíbín

Producers:  Scott Rudin, Stuart Thompson, Jon B. Platt, Roger Berlind, Broadway Across America, Scott M. Delman, Jean Doumanian, Roy Furman, Stephanie P. McClelland, Sonia Friedman Productions/Tulchin Bartner Productions, The Araca Group, Heni Koenigsberg, Daryl Roth, Eli Bush

Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Author:  Christopher Durang

Producers:  Joey Parnes, Larry Hirschhorn, Joan Raffe & Jhett Tolentino, Martin Platt & David Elliott, Pat Flicker Addiss, Catherine Adler, John O’Boyle, Joshua Goodman, Jamie deRoy/Richard Winkler, Cricket Hooper Jiranek/Michael Palitz, Mark S. Golub & David S. Golub, Radio Mouse Entertainment, ShadowCatcher Entertainment, Mary Cossette/Barbara Manocherian, Megan Savage/Meredith Lynsey Schade, Hugh Hysell/Richard Jordan, Cheryl Wiesenfeld/Ron Simons, S.D. Wagner, John Johnson, McCarter Theatre Center, Lincoln Center Theater

Will Win: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Should Win: Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Nora Ephron would be a sentimental choice, but Christopher Durang has the smarts and credibility and his play has the box office receipts to win this. Plus, the "Best Play" honor would help bring audiences to this play when it tours (and any riff on Chekhov could use that kind of boost).

Best Musical

Bring It On: The Musical

Producers:  Universal Pictures Stage Productions/Glenn Ross, Beacon Communications/Armyan Bernstein & Charlie Lyons, Kristin Caskey & Mike Isaacson

A Christmas Story, The Musical

Producers:  Gerald Goehring, Roy Miller, Michael F. Mitri, Pat Flicker Addiss, Peter Billingsley, Timothy Laczynski, Mariano Tolentino, Jr., Louise H. Beard, Michael Filerman, Scott Hart, Alison Eckert, Bob Bartner, Michael Jenkins, Angela Milonas, Bradford W. Smith

Kinky Boots

Producers:  Daryl Roth, Hal Luftig, James L. Nederlander, Terry Allen Kramer, Independent Presenters Network, CJ E&M, Jayne Baron Sherman, Just for Laughs Theatricals/Judith Ann Abrams, Yasuhiro Kawana, Jane Bergère, Allan S. Gordon & Adam S. Gordon, Ken Davenport, Hunter Arnold, Lucy & Phil Suarez, Bryan Bantry, Ron Fierstein & Dorsey Regal, Jim Kierstead/Gregory Rae, BB Group/Christina Papagjika, Michael DeSantis/Patrick Baugh, Brian Smith/Tom & Connie Walsh, Warren Trepp, Jujamcyn Theaters

Matilda The Musical

Producers:  The Royal Shakespeare Company and The Dodgers

Will Win: Kinky Boots

Should Win: Kinky Boots

There you have it. The big award of the night will go to the Cyndi Lauper/Harvey Fierstein adaptation of a lovely little British movie. This year, I have actually seen all of the nominees in this much lauded category, and although "Matilda" was also great fun, it was darker, more existential, and therefore more quirky than the flat-out feel-good "Kinky Boots," and I think Tony voters will swing towards that unabashed optimism.

My pick for the 2013 Best Musical Tony Award!

Best Revival of a Play

Golden Boy

Producers:  Lincoln Center Theater, André Bishop, Bernard Gersten

Orphans

Producers:  Frederick Zollo, Robert Cole, The Shubert Organization, Orin Wolf, Lucky VIII, Scott M. Delman, James P. MacGilvray, StylesFour Productions

The Trip to Bountiful

Producers:  Nelle Nugent, Kevin Liles, Paula Marie Black, David R. Weinreb, Stephen C. Byrd, Alia M. Jones, Kenneth Teaton, Carole L. Haber/Philip Geier, Wendy Federman/Carl Moellenberg/Ricardo Hornos, Fifty Church Street Productions/Hallie Foote/Tyson and Kimberly Chandler, Joseph Sirola, Howard and Janet Kagan/Charles Salameno, Sharon A. Carr/Patricia R. Klausner, Raymond Gaspard/Andréa M. Price, Willette Murphy Klausner/Reginald M. Browne

Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Producers:  Jeffrey Richards, Jerry Frankel, Susan Quint Gallin, Mary Lu Roffe, Kit Seidel, Amy Danis & Mark Johannes, Patty Baker, Mark S. Golub & David S. Golub, Richard Gross, Jam Theatricals, Cheryl Lachowicz, Michael Palitz, Dramatic Forces/Angelina Fiordellisi, Luigi & Rose Caiola, Ken Greiner, Kathleen K. Johnson, Kirmser Ponturo Fund, Will Trice, GFour Productions, Steppenwolf Theatre Company

Will Win: Who's Afraid Of Virginia Woolf?

Should Win: Golden Boy

Unlike the Best Musical category, I have only seen one of the nominees in this category. But three stunning acts of complex human issues in a rarely staged Clifford Odets drama won me over big time. As brilliant as Tracy Letts and company may have been in an Albee masterwork, I've seen so many stagings of "Woolf" that it no longer thrills me, it just depresses me. So I would rather see the award go to something seemingly fresh, even for a revival.

Best Revival of a Musical

Annie

Producers:  Arielle Tepper Madover, Roger Horchow, Sally Horchow, Roger Berlind, Roy Furman, Debbie Bisno, Stacey Mindich, James M. Nederlander, Jane Bergère/Daryl Roth, Eva Price/Christina Papagjika

The Mystery of Edwin Drood

Producers:  Roundabout Theatre Company, Todd Haimes, Harold Wolpert, Julia C. Levy

Pippin

Producers:  Barry and Fran Weissler, Howard and Janet Kagan, Lisa Matlin, Kyodo Tokyo, A&A Gordon/Brunish Trinchero, Tom Smedes/Peter Stern, Broadway Across America, Independent Presenters Network, Norton Herrick, Allen Spivak, Rebecca Gold, Joshua Goodman, Stephen E. McManus, David Robbins/Bryan S. Weingarten, Philip Hagemann/Murray Rosenthal, Jim Kierstead/Carlos Arana/Myla Lerner, Hugh Hayes/Jamie Cesa/Jonathan Reinis, Sharon A. Carr/Patricia R. Klausner, Ben Feldman, Square 1 Theatrics, Wendy Federman/Carl Moellenberg, Bruce Robert Harris/Jack W. Batman, Infinity Theatre Company/Michael Rubenstein, Michael A. Alden/Dale Badway/Ken Mahoney, American Repertory Theater

Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Producers:  Robyn Goodman, Jill Furman, Stephen Kocis, Edward Walson, Venetian Glass Productions, The Araca Group, Luigi Caiola & Rose Caiola, Roy Furman, Walt Grossman, Peter May/Sanford Robertson, Glass Slipper Productions LLC/Eric Schmidt, Ted Liebowitz/James Spry, Blanket Fort Productions, Center Theatre Group

Will Win: Pippin

Should Win: Pippin

Diane Paulus's latest revival simply dominates in what is usually a nicely contested category. Mind you, as much of a fan as I am of Stephen Schwartz, I was not really a fan of "Pippin." But this is more than a revival. It is a complete re-invention of all the best that live performance can be. I am not overstating this, trust me. Imagine the most dazzling musical you have seen. Imagine the coolest circus you have ever seen. Now imagine them mashed up, like a Las Vegas-style Celine/Bette extravaganza, but on a more intimate stage and with a much ore compelling storyline. There now. That might come close to the magic that "Pippin" has created. Just hand over the award, please. And keep them coming. I hope this revival lasts a long time. It is miraculous.

And, I hope, this production stays revived for a good long run!

Best Book of a Musical

A Christmas Story, The Musical

Joseph Robinette

Kinky Boots

Harvey Fierstein

Matilda The Musical

Dennis Kelly

Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Douglas Carter Beane

Will Win: Matilda

Should Win: Matilda

I am a fan of anything by Douglas Carter Beane, and of Harvey Fierstein. But the musical that required the most work to adapt an original source of inspiration into what you see on stage has to be "Matilda." (And this might be the consolation prize "bone" that the Tony voters give to "Matilda" when it fails to win the "Best Musical" prize.)

Hello, Gorgeous...

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

A Christmas Story, The Musical

Music and Lyrics: Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Hands on a Hardbody

Music: Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green
Lyrics: Amanda Green

Kinky Boots

Music & Lyrics: Cyndi Lauper

Matilda The Musical

Music & Lyrics: Tim Minchin

Will Win: Kinky Boots

Should Win: Matilda The Musical

I'm thrilled that "Hands On A Hardbody" got nominated, but I'm sure voters have mostly forgotten it, clever as it may have been. "A Christmas Story" was sweet, but also hard to remember post-holiday season. So this category comes down to the frontrunners, "Kinky Boots" and "Matilda," and I think the award will go to the less complicated and more accessible pop music score. (The bonus will be Cyndi Lauper's acceptance speech. Get it, Girl.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy
Nathan Lane, The Nance
Tracy Letts, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
David Hyde Pierce, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Tom Sturridge, Orphans

Will Win: Tom Hanks

Should Win: Tom Hanks

It's rare that Hollywood starpower pays off in both box office receipts and effective stagecraft, but everyone seems to be in love with Tom Hanks's Broadway debut, so give it to Mister Nice Man, already. (The bonus will be Tom Hanks's acceptance speech that will surely pay tribute to Nora Ephron as well.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place
Amy Morton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Holland Taylor, Ann
Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Will Win: Cicely Tyson

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

The same logic that tells me that former "Bosom Buddy" will walk off with a Tony Award tomorrow also tells me that Cicely Tyson will be honored with a prize of her own. Let's face it: she is a grand dame of acting, everyone loves her back on stage in a lovely revival. I wish Holland Taylor's solo work (which she also wrote and produced) could receive some glory. But I have to say that Laurie Metcalf will be cheated by starpower if she does not give an acceptance speech for her completely enthralling work in "The Other Place." She was captivating from the moment the house opened and she was already on stage as people took their seats. And then for a non-stop fascinating ride that jumps times and spaces and is either a descent into madness or a journey to consolation, she just gave all the energy and emotion in the world, and was nothing less than a pure revelation, proving that she is definitely one of the greatest and one of the most under-appreciated actors of our time. Damn it, Tony Awards, this is her year, so please do what is right and award Laurie Metcalf!

Overdue for a Tony Award: Laurie Metcalf!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Bertie Carvel, Matilda The Musical
Santino Fontana, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Rob McClure, Chaplin
Billy Porter, Kinky Boots
Stark Sands, Kinky Boots

Will Win: Billy Porter

Should Win: Billy Porter

Rob McClure was as good as Robert Downey, Jr. in his spot-on mimicry of Charlie Chaplin, plus he sang and danced and broke my heart with sentimental tugs on my heartstrings. Santino Fontana and Stark Sands are solid. But the race will come down to Bertie Carvel and Billy Porter. So here's how I am calling it: Bertie Carvel steals his scenes, but even though he is the maniacal (most) evil character in "Matilda," his role felt more like a featured, not a leading, role to me. Yes, he was so good, that it was hard to believe Mrs. Trunchbull was being played by a man in drag. But he has to contend with another man in drag, and this one has more heart and emotional range and bravery and optimism. So I think the award will go to Lola, I mean: Billy Porter. (He's also a Broadway veteran, in what is decidedly a career-making role of a lifetime. And I hope his acceptance speech reads the children some acceptance and love and optimism and joy!)

Congratulations (in advance), Billy Porter, and thank you for Lola in "Kinky Boots!"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Carolee Carmello, Scandalous
Valisia LeKae, Motown The Musical
Patina Miller, Pippin
Laura Osnes, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Will Win: Patina Miller

Should Win: Patina Miller

Is someone from "Pippin" (see Best Revival of a Musical, above) nominated? And is that someone the person who plays "The Leading Performer" character? And that same person channels Ben Vereen and Bob Fosse's choreography while defining the role in her own way? And she performs the part of the opening number while spinning upside-down on a trapeze? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Done. 

Oh hey there, Patina Miller. Have you practiced giving an acceptance speech from a trapeze?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Danny Burstein, Golden Boy
Richard Kind, The Big Knife
Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy
Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy

Will Win: Billy Magnussen

Should Win: Tony Shalhoub

Even if he accepts the award in all his shirtless glory, it will be a real shame that Tony Shalhoub's perfectly nuanced and heartbreaking performance will get overlooked. His performance gave "Golden Boy" an emotional soul that epitomizes the title of this category. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Carrie Coon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Shalita Grant, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Judith Ivey, The Heiress
Judith Light, The Assembled Parties
Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

Will Win: Shalita Grant

Should Win: Judith Light

Critical views on this category swayed me to give it to the Durang actress, even though I think Judith Light could easily surprise everyone with a repeat of her 2012 win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Charl Brown, Motown The Musical
Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody
Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Gabriel Ebert, Matilda The Musical
Terrence Mann, Pippin

Will Win: Gabriel Ebert

Should Win: Gabriel Ebert

This might be the one category where "Pippin" might get edged out. Even though Will Chase and Terrence Mann are Broadway stalwarts, Gabriel Ebert steals all of his scenes in "Matilda." Maybe it's the Adam Pascal effect (who could forget that vision in plaid pants in "RENT?"): give the award to the man in the crazy hair and the plaid suit! (His win would also give "Matilda" a solid acting award to add to its eventual tally.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots
Victoria Clark, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Andrea Martin, Pippin
Keala Settle, Hands on a Hardbody
Lauren Ward, Matilda The Musical

Will Win: Andrea Martin

Should Win: Andrea Martin (or Annaleigh Ashford)

Oh. My. "Pippin." Andrea Martin filled my heart with joy, before and after she twirled above the stage in a soaring (no safety net, no safety wire) circus act while singing about being a kooky grandmother. In a corset. Is there any other embodiment of a scene-stealer? No. Thank you, Broadway community, for awarding this to Andrea Martin.

Andrea Martin, you are a true delight!

Best Scenic Design of a Play

John Lee Beatty, The Nance
Santo Loquasto, The Assembled Parties
David Rockwell, Lucky Guy
Michael Yeargan, Golden Boy

Will Win: The Nance

Should Win: Golden Boy

I thought "Golden Boy" had the greatest range in scenic design, even if nothing was a standout in color or mechanics or glam or glitz. And I want that play to get some wins! (And if the telecast cuts to a camera shot of Seth Numrich every time "Golden Boy" is mentioned, well, I won't begrudge that!)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Rob Howell, Matilda The Musical
Anna Louizos, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Scott Pask, Pippin
David Rockwell, Kinky Boots

Will Win: Matilda The Musical

Should Win: Pippin

Even if few people pay attention to these design categories, they really do showcase brilliant artistry. "Matilda"'s proscenium alone should win this category. But "Pippin"'s circus within the theater design had to be technically precise and functional to accommodate the acrobatics and the singing and dancing, and had a truly moving final "reveal" (or un-reveal, as it were) in the final number.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Soutra Gilmour, Cyrano de Bergerac
Ann Roth, The Nance
Albert Wolsky, The Heiress
Catherine Zuber, Golden Boy

Will Win: The Heiress
Should Win: Golden Boy

Catherine Zouber has quite the track record here, and deservedly so, and I hope she wins this one for the sheer number and magnitude in range of her designs. But people tend to remember the big frilly period costumes, so this award could go to "Cyrano de Bergerac," but more likely to the more critically heralded "The Heiress."


Best Costume Design of a Musical

Gregg Barnes, Kinky Boots
Rob Howell, Matilda The Musical
Dominique Lemieux, Pippin
William Ivey Long, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Will Win: Kinky Boots or Matilda The Musical (a split vote for me, hoping for a tie)
Should Win: Pippin

"Matilda" costumed a big cast of adults and kids in wildly inventive outfits, including one that transformed a man into a big chested evil headmistress. "Kinky Boots" had some of the fiercest drag in the history of, well, in the history of all drag (Broadway or not), and of course it had those titular boots. "Cinderella" had memorable ornate frilly fairy tale costumes befitting a magical wonderland. But for creative designs that had to be suitably functional for a range of demanding performances, and that included some of the best quick-change "wow" moments, I think "Pippin" should steal this award, just as that show's costumes nearly steal the show.


Best Lighting Design of a Play

Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Lucky Guy
Donald Holder, Golden Boy
Jennifer Tipton, The Testament of Mary
Japhy Weideman, The Nance

Will Win: Lucky Guy
Should Win: Lucky Guy

The industry favorites (Jules Fisher alone has 18 nominations and 8 awards in this category, more than any other lighting designer) should get this one easily. (N.B.: I think "The Other Place" was woefully overlooked in this category.)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kenneth Posner, Kinky Boots
Kenneth Posner, Pippin
Kenneth Posner, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella
Hugh Vanstone, Matilda The Musical

Will Win: Matilda The Musical
Should Win: Matilda The Musical

With 3 out of the 4 nominations, Kenneth Posner will surely win, but for which show? The lights and shadows of "Pippin"'s opening and closing numbers were great, "Kinky Boots" was far less memorable for lights than for its story and songs, but "Matilda" really used lights to great effect. "Matilda"'s lighting design felt perfectly integrated into the show's scenic design and added great drama and comedy in just the right doses at just the right times. In fact, "Matilda" is the kind of lighting design for a musical that is so inventively imagined and beautifully realized that it might make you wonder, "Gee, why haven't I ever noticed lighting design before?"


Best Sound Design of a Play

John Gromada, The Trip to Bountiful
Mel Mercier, The Testament of Mary
Leon Rothenberg, The Nance
Peter John Still and Marc Salzberg, Golden Boy

Will Win: The Nance
Should Win: Golden Boy


Okay, I'm not just hopelessly biased for "Golden Boy." It is a play about a man who is choosing between a career as a boxer or as a violinst. So it's a perfect vehicle for voice, sound effects, and even music in a play. Sound Design is much more than just those pieces, but having those components in one production certainly help. but if the Tony voters want to spread the wealth, "The Nance" may not leave empty-handed.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Jonathan Deans & Garth Helm, Pippin
Peter Hylenski, Motown The Musical
John Shivers, Kinky Boots
Nevin Steinberg, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Will Win: Kinky Boots
Should Win: Kinky Boots

Shockingly, "Matilda" is not nominated here, which paves a clear path for the Boots of Kink.


Best Direction of a Play

Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Nicholas Martin, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
Bartlett Sher, Golden Boy
George C. Wolfe, Lucky Guy

Will Win: Nicholas Martin
Should Win: Bartlett Sher

I think the critical acclaim earned with the ushering in of a new creative work will slightly edge out the complicated direction of a widely swinging emotional arc so "Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike" will win over "Golden Boy."


Best Direction of a Musical

Scott Ellis, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots
Diane Paulus, Pippin
Matthew Warchus, Matilda The Musical

Will Win: Diane Paulus
Should Win: Diane Paulus

It may seem odd that the Best Musical is also not the Best Directed Musical, but that's what happens when categories get split between "new" and "revival" statuses. It doesn't matter here though. Diane Paulus breathes new life and heart and energy into "Pippin" and deserves every possible award there is for her talent, imagination, passion, and skill as a director. Is there a Tony Award for the Best OMG category? Yes? Give that to her too. No? Make one. And then give it to Diane Paulus.

Best Choreography

Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On: The Musical
Peter Darling, Matilda The Musical
Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots
Chet Walker, Pippin

Will Win: Matilda The Musical
Should Win: Pippin

This is a tough one for me, because all the nominees had great action. The high-flying acrobatics in "Bring It On" served as great punctuation marks to an otherwise straightforward tween/teen story. "Kinky Boots" fab (as in "fabulous!") numbers, but these were mostly the stomping-in-heels, don't-you-dare-mess-with-a-fierce-drag-diva numbers. "Pippin" of course required blending stage choreography with circus acrobatics, but will Tony voters award that effort or chalk it up to great direction of a gimmick that is sustained and used well? My heart is leaning towards "Matilda" with inventive dances that roamed all over an ingenious stage...and the curtain call was choreographed to employ scooters for the whole cast - come on!


Best Orchestrations

Chris Nightingale, Matilda The Musical
Stephen Oremus, Kinky Boots
Ethan Popp & Bryan Crook, Motown The Musical

Danny Troob, Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella

Will Win: Kinky Boots
Should Win: Matilda The Musical

I think the orchestrations in "Matilda" were more complex and nuanced than the more straightforward pop songbook of "Kinky Boots" but since Tony voters tend to associate orchestrations with the score of a musical anyway, I think Lola and her Angels will walk off with this one too, boots and all.

* * *

Don't forget these recipients of Awards and Honors in Non-competitive Categories:

Special Tony Award for Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre

Bernard Gersten

Paul Libin

Ming Cho Lee

Regional Theatre Award

Huntington Theatre Company, Boston, MA

Isabelle Stevenson Award

Larry Kramer

Tony Honor for Excellence in the Theatre

Career Transition For Dancers

William Craver

Peter Lawrence

The Lost Colony

The four actresses who created the title role of Matilda The Musical on Broadway - Sophia Gennusa, Oona Laurence, Bailey Ryon and Milly Shapiro

I think it's a shame that the four young actresses who rotate the role of "Matilda" were voted ineligible to share a nomination for featured or leading actresses (the way the three young actors who originated the title role in "Billy Elliott" were co-nominated and co-won), so I'm glad they are receiving honors without the stress of a competitive category. And I'm hopeful that at least parts of Larry Kramer's acceptance speech will be televised because whether or not you agree with his politics, his intelligence is undeniable, and that bit of sharpness is always welcome (in my book) at an awards ceremony.

Well, there you have it. If you are not excited for the 2013 Tony Awards, playing along with your own ballot may do nothing for you. But you can still have fun with a drinking game of your choice, based on Broadway.com's Tony Awards bingo:

See? There's something for everyone in theater. And "everybody say yeah!" for that!