Well, well well...it's that time of the year again. On Sunday, March 2, one of the calendar year's great Gay High Holy Days returns. So get out your play-at-home ballots, drop the cash in your office betting pools, and read on for my predictions.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - "Captain Phillips"
Bradley Cooper - "American Hustle"
Michael Fassbender - "12 Years A Slave"
Jonah Hill - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Jared Leto - "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Jared Leto
Notes: In a pool of some very big names, an up-and-comer, and a BAFTA Award newbie, this is one of the few categories this year that is actually a lock. You may not have seen "Dallas Buyers Club," but that guy from TV's "My So-Called Life" who won critical praise for "Prefontaine" (seventeen years ago) gives nothing short of a career-defining revelatory performance.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins - "Blue Jasmine"
Jennifer Lawrence - "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o - "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts - "August: Osage County"
June Squibb - "Nebraska"
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Should Win: June Squibb
Notes: This time, the Golden Globes and BAFTAs got it wrong for awarding the most internationally marketable nominee. But, sorry, Jennifer Lawrence: Lupita Nyong'o was honored by her (Oscar-voting) peers with the SAG award and some other critical prizes. Her role was gut-wrenchingly painful and brutal, but absolutely essential to her film's story. Beyond the sentimental vote, June Squibb also gave her film fascinating depth in humor and complex character, but she will be edged out.
Best Original Song
"Alone Yet Not Alone" - "Alone Yet Not Alone"
"Happy" - "Despicable Me 2"
"Let It Go" - "Frozen"
"The Moon Song" - "Her"
"Ordinary Love" - "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
Will Win: "Let It Go"
Should Win: "Let It Go"
Notes: You have to be buried under some Polar Vortex glaciers to not know or have seen/heard any fans or YouTube videos covering this epic "I Want" character-defining song. And when Idina Menzel sings it live at the Oscars, the motion picture world will realize why it's so good to cast real musical theater actors in musical movies (animated or not). Sorry, Pharrell and U2: love you both, but co-writer Robert Lopez is going to join the EGOT Club with this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Before Midnight"
"Captain Phillips"
"Philomena"
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"
Will Win: "12 Years A Slave"
Should Win: "12 Years A Slave"
Notes: This category includes some very compelling written works but transforming an important historical memoir into a vividly emotional drama brings the past to life in heart-breaking fashion.
Best Original Screenplay
"American Hustle"
"Blue Jasmine"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Her"
"Nebraska"
Will Win: The concept behind "Her" was so refreshingly sharp, that it fits every definition of "original..."
Should Win: ...however, the screenplays for "Dallas Buyers Club" and "Nebraska" produced better films, and without a screenplay, a motion picture is nothing.
Notes: Overlooked = "Inside Llewyn Davis," and "All Is Lost."
Best Animated Feature Film
"The Croods"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Ernest & Celestine"
"Frozen"
"The Wind Rises"
Will Win: "Frozen"
Should Win: "Frozen"
Notes: I was disappointed that "Monsters University" was not nominated, but maybe I was biased by my career in higher education that predisposed me to see a lot of reality captured perfectly in a world of make-believe. And if "The Wind Rises" is Hiyao Myazaki's last film, he deserves honorary Oscars for writing and directing some of the best animated features of all time.
Best Documentary Short Subject
"Cavedigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"
Will Win: "The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
Should Win: "The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life" (runner-ups: "Facing Fear" or "Karama Has No Walls"
Notes:If you have not seen any of the nominees, here's all you need to know: "The Lady In Number 6" is about a Holocaust survivor who is over 100 years old and plays the piano. The Oscar goes to...
Best Documentary Feature
"The Act of Killing"
"Cutie and the Boxer"
"Dirty Wars"
"The Square"
"20 Feet From Stardom"
Will Win: "The Act of Killing" was harrowing, frightening, and important.
Should Win: Similarly, "The Square" should be required viewing, but did not leave my stomach in as many knots and "Cutie and the Boxer" was astonishing, but felt unresolved. Both will just miss this award.
Notes: When any of the nominated documentaries are available to you in any form, just make a point of seeing them. They may not all be as fun and cool as "20 Feet From Stardom," but they all deserve your attention.
Best Foreign Language Film
"The Broken Circle Breakdown"
"The Great Beauty"
"The Hunt"
"The Missing Picture"
"Omar"
Will Win: "The Great Beauty" should get the award to add even more shimmer to its stunning visual splendor.
Should Win: "The Hunt" was a far more intriguing story, but dark and sad, so the voters may go for the nominee that feels more classic.
Notes: As with the Documentary Feature category, make it a point to read subtitles and see each of these. These films have artistic qualities that are usually absent in American-made English-language Hollywood productions. And then they get re-made in English a year or two later, usually to disappointing effect, so you're better off seeing the original.
Best Cinematography
"The Grandmaster"
"Gravity"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Nebraska"
"Prisoners"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: I have to say it every year: this is an award for the best camera work, as commanded by the Director of Photography. It is not an award for the prettiest images or most sweeping visual scenery. For the seamless combination of live-action and digitally animated photography, "Gravity" has this one locked down.
Best Costume Design
"American Hustle"
"The Grandmaster"
"The Great Gatsby"
"The Invisible Woman"
"12 Years a Slave"
Will Win: "American Hustle"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Notes: Period dramas usually win this category (especially if they include scenes in some grand ballroom with dozens of people doing some kind of waltz). The 1970s-1980s may be far more recent history than "12 Years a Slave" and "The Invisible Woman" but everyone agrees that the costumes in "American Hustle" secured the look just right, better than the double-sided tape on Amy Adams.
Best Film Editing
"American Hustle"
"Captain Phillips"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Gravity"
"12 Years a Slave"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: This award would complement the cinematography work in "Gravity" because what appear to be minutes-long single camera shots in the movie must surely be the result of masterful editing to make all the special effects work just as envisioned.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa"
"The Lone Ranger"
Will Win: "Dallas Buyers Club"
Should Win: "Dallas Buyers Club"
Notes: Oh come on. I think we can all agree that "American Hustle" was overlooked in this category, and nobody wants to give any award to either of the other two nominees. So the only viable option is the winner (and also actually deserves it anyway).
Best Original Score
"The Book Thief"
"Gravity"
"Her"
"Philomena"
"Saving Mr. Banks"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Philomena" or "Saving Mr. Banks"
Notes: I'm a sap for the tear-jerkers and "Philomena" and "Saving Mr. Banks" were both either overlooked or will not win other awards, which is a shame because in any other year they would at least be able to release DVDs and Blu-Rays under the banner "Academy Award winner." Alas, this is the year for the score that seems to always be simultaneously fully present while just bubbling under the surface of the movie (even where sound can not exist in the vacuum of space).
Best Production Design
"American Hustle"
"Gravity"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Her"
"12 Years a Slave"
Will Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Notes: I'm prepared to lose this prediction because everyone else seems to be taken with "American Hustle"'s look. But I think "The Great Gatsby" (especially in 3D) had the full realization of a look in costumes, sets, hair, staging, and even digital effects that were as good if not light years better than "American Hustle." Plus, it combined a feeling of historical and familiar ("American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave") with a feeling of imagined future and possibly unreal ("Gravity" and "Her").
Best Animated Short Film
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"
Will Win: "Get A Horse!"
Should Win: "Mr. Hublot"
Notes: This prediction pits my personal favorite against the popular tide.
Best Live Action Short Film
"Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)"
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)"
"Helium"
"Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)"
"The Voorman Problem"
Will Win: "Aquel No Era Yo"
Should Win: "Avant Que De Tout Perdre"
Notes: My gut reaction to the nominees might actually align with popular trends in this category.
Best Sound Editing
"All Is Lost"
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Lone Survivor"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: This is the award for creating sounds, including sounds that do not exist in real experiences. You know: the way the original Godzilla's roar was actually a sound-edited upright bass string being rubbed by a leather glove. This is the category that effects-heavy movies often win, and "Gravity" will take this one, even though "All Is Lost" should be a runner-up (because it told an amazing story with almost no spoken words, but with sounds that had to be edited into the movie in post-production).
Best Sound Mixing
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Lone Survivor"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: Yes, "Gravity"'s technical award sweep continues with the award that recognizes achievement in blending and layering all the recorded sounds and all the invented (or edited, see above) sounds. This category has nothing to do with producing a nice soundtrack, although the musical performances in "Inside Llewyn Davis" were well placed into moments of dialogue and silence, and I wish that movie could take home just one award (and this would be its best chance).
Best Visual Effects
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Iron Man 3"
"The Lone Ranger"
"Star Trek: Into Darkness"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: With the exception of "The Lone Ranger," this is a field of great science fiction and fantasy films. Oh wait. Is "Gravity" nominated? Done. (Overlooked, again: "Captain Phillips," "The Great Gastby," and "All Is Lost.")
Best Director
David O. Russell - "American Hustle"
Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
Alexander Payne - "Nebraska"
Steve McQueen - "12 Years a Slave"
Martin Scorsese - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Notes: He had the vision, the determination, the tenacity, the inventiveness, and the daring to create a movie that was not just breathtaking, but also a movie that re-defined the limits of large-format 3D film. The man at the helm of "Gravity" fully deserves this.
Best Actress
Amy Adams - "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett - "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock - "Gravity"
Judi Dench - "Philomena"
Meryl Streep - "August: Osage County"
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett or Judi Dench
Notes: I'll repeat my annual awards season rant: I want a woman to receive recognition for a performance in a role that does not include emotional hysterics that are too often unfairly pegged as feminine attributes. But Cate Blanchett (who can do no wrong, in my book) gave a great performance that was sad and funny and desperate and pathetic and complex and twisted. Judi Dench delivered a far more nuanced combination of much of the same. Emma Thompson was overlooked for "Saving Mr. Banks." And "American Hustle" was just way too overrated all-around.
Best Actor
Christian Bale - "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern - "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor - "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey - "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Matthew McCounaghey
Notes: I would also cheer if Chiwetel Ejiofor (the original "Lola" in the movie "Kinky Boots" has come a long way, baby!) or if Bruce Dern won because they were both fantastic. But Matthew McConaughey is as much a revelation in this movie as his co-star Jared Leto, and for once he reveals a character without relying on taking off his clothes. Oh yeah, and have I mentioned that I thought "American Hustle" was overrated? Okay, thanks.
Best Picture
"American Hustle"
"Captain Phillips"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Gravity"
"Her"
"Nebraska"
"Philomena"
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity" or "12 Years a Slave" or "Dallas Buyers Club"
Notes: Yes, I'm cheating and hedging my bet in the biggest category. That's because out of all the nominees, there are three that really stuck with me long after seeing them, even though all of them were great movies to watch. As the little movie that could, "Dallas Buyers Club" (if you can forgive most of Jennifer Garner in it) was really impactful. But in a field as qualified as this one is this year, I had to ponder which movie would I want to be forever known as the one that defined 2013? And I think it has to be "Gravity" - seeing that in the theater (in 3D) felt like I was experiencing an entirely new medium for the first time. And that's why I predict it will get the top honor in an industry that sometimes seems to have no original ideas left in its playbook.
Just remember: if I helped you win the (big) jackpot, I don't ask for a share of the cash, but a simple thanks will do - you're welcome (in advance)! Hope you enjoy the Academy Awards!
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"
Notes: I'm prepared to lose this prediction because everyone else seems to be taken with "American Hustle"'s look. But I think "The Great Gatsby" (especially in 3D) had the full realization of a look in costumes, sets, hair, staging, and even digital effects that were as good if not light years better than "American Hustle." Plus, it combined a feeling of historical and familiar ("American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave") with a feeling of imagined future and possibly unreal ("Gravity" and "Her").
Best Animated Short Film
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"
Will Win: "Get A Horse!"
Should Win: "Mr. Hublot"
Notes: This prediction pits my personal favorite against the popular tide.
Best Live Action Short Film
"Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)"
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)"
"Helium"
"Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)"
"The Voorman Problem"
Will Win: "Aquel No Era Yo"
Should Win: "Avant Que De Tout Perdre"
Notes: My gut reaction to the nominees might actually align with popular trends in this category.
Best Sound Editing
"All Is Lost"
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Lone Survivor"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: This is the award for creating sounds, including sounds that do not exist in real experiences. You know: the way the original Godzilla's roar was actually a sound-edited upright bass string being rubbed by a leather glove. This is the category that effects-heavy movies often win, and "Gravity" will take this one, even though "All Is Lost" should be a runner-up (because it told an amazing story with almost no spoken words, but with sounds that had to be edited into the movie in post-production).
Best Sound Mixing
"Captain Phillips"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Lone Survivor"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: Yes, "Gravity"'s technical award sweep continues with the award that recognizes achievement in blending and layering all the recorded sounds and all the invented (or edited, see above) sounds. This category has nothing to do with producing a nice soundtrack, although the musical performances in "Inside Llewyn Davis" were well placed into moments of dialogue and silence, and I wish that movie could take home just one award (and this would be its best chance).
Best Visual Effects
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Iron Man 3"
"The Lone Ranger"
"Star Trek: Into Darkness"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity"
Notes: With the exception of "The Lone Ranger," this is a field of great science fiction and fantasy films. Oh wait. Is "Gravity" nominated? Done. (Overlooked, again: "Captain Phillips," "The Great Gastby," and "All Is Lost.")
Best Director
David O. Russell - "American Hustle"
Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
Alexander Payne - "Nebraska"
Steve McQueen - "12 Years a Slave"
Martin Scorsese - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Notes: He had the vision, the determination, the tenacity, the inventiveness, and the daring to create a movie that was not just breathtaking, but also a movie that re-defined the limits of large-format 3D film. The man at the helm of "Gravity" fully deserves this.
Best Actress
Amy Adams - "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett - "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock - "Gravity"
Judi Dench - "Philomena"
Meryl Streep - "August: Osage County"
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett or Judi Dench
Notes: I'll repeat my annual awards season rant: I want a woman to receive recognition for a performance in a role that does not include emotional hysterics that are too often unfairly pegged as feminine attributes. But Cate Blanchett (who can do no wrong, in my book) gave a great performance that was sad and funny and desperate and pathetic and complex and twisted. Judi Dench delivered a far more nuanced combination of much of the same. Emma Thompson was overlooked for "Saving Mr. Banks." And "American Hustle" was just way too overrated all-around.
Best Actor
Christian Bale - "American Hustle"
Bruce Dern - "Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor - "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey - "Dallas Buyers Club"
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Matthew McCounaghey
Notes: I would also cheer if Chiwetel Ejiofor (the original "Lola" in the movie "Kinky Boots" has come a long way, baby!) or if Bruce Dern won because they were both fantastic. But Matthew McConaughey is as much a revelation in this movie as his co-star Jared Leto, and for once he reveals a character without relying on taking off his clothes. Oh yeah, and have I mentioned that I thought "American Hustle" was overrated? Okay, thanks.
Best Picture
"American Hustle"
"Captain Phillips"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Gravity"
"Her"
"Nebraska"
"Philomena"
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"
Will Win: "Gravity"
Should Win: "Gravity" or "12 Years a Slave" or "Dallas Buyers Club"
Notes: Yes, I'm cheating and hedging my bet in the biggest category. That's because out of all the nominees, there are three that really stuck with me long after seeing them, even though all of them were great movies to watch. As the little movie that could, "Dallas Buyers Club" (if you can forgive most of Jennifer Garner in it) was really impactful. But in a field as qualified as this one is this year, I had to ponder which movie would I want to be forever known as the one that defined 2013? And I think it has to be "Gravity" - seeing that in the theater (in 3D) felt like I was experiencing an entirely new medium for the first time. And that's why I predict it will get the top honor in an industry that sometimes seems to have no original ideas left in its playbook.
Just remember: if I helped you win the (big) jackpot, I don't ask for a share of the cash, but a simple thanks will do - you're welcome (in advance)! Hope you enjoy the Academy Awards!
