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| The 83rd Annual Academy Awards: February 27, 2011 |
More than the red carpet pre-show or the Monday morning bleary-eyed post-show, I know this is what you've been waiting for: my annual predictions (guesses and commentary) for that Gay High Holy Day known as the Academy Awards. So before co-hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway take the lead, here I go, for whatever it may be worth...
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”- Javier Bardem recently won and while his performance this year may be extraordinary (and notable for a lead acting nomination coming from a non-English language movie), his and Jeff Bridges's work is not buzzworthy. Jesse Eisenberg deserves praise for his intensely frenetic handling of an excellent script (but his acting was not markedly different than how he pulled off "Zombieland"), and James Franco literally carried his movie solo for almost its entire length. But the absolutely remarkable masterful subtlety of Colin Firth's performance will finally win him the award that he was denied in last year's "A Single Man." Yes, it's a small film about a heretofore obscure bit of history, but many other actors would have portrayed this role with the expected verbal acoustics of stammering and slurring. Colin Firth was able to project his character's speech pathology with grace by using a lot of smart amazing silence to fill the screen with frustrating emotion and character depth and not just the obvious choice of making noise. He was absolutely triumphant and his career is so deserving.
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
- All of these nominations are excellent choices, but "Winter's Bone" and "The Town" have been largely dismissed in total nominations. Mark Ruffalo's time will come, but not this year. Sadly, Geoffrey Rush's excellent performance is eclipsed by his lead co-star's. So for yet another physical transformation with emotional complexity, I'm giving this one to Christian Bale. Overlooked in this category: Aaron Eckhart and Miles Teller in "Rabbit Hole."
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”- Nicole Kidman in yet another overrated (but well-written and well-directed) performance? Yawn. At least her forehead showed some movement and emotion this time. Jennifer Lawrence owned it in "Winter's Bone" - what an amazing debut, so remember her name (fame!). Michelle Williams gave a fully invested and complexly realized performance in a story that I found otherwise rather dull and familiar. So it comes down to Annette Bening and Natalie Portman - both extremely talented and a joy to see in almost anything. But just like what I thought was an overrated performance in "American Beauty," I did not think her role in "The Kids Are All Right" was an acting stretch for Annette Bening. (And don't get me started on my soapbox of what I believe to be a sexist bias to reward/recognize women in classically histrionic roles...) For her physical and emotional bravery, I'm throwing my support behind Natalie Portman. It's about time she gets associated with an award that matches her talent (and that forgives her efforts in the otherwise unforgiveable "Star Wars" prequel trilogy as Queen Amidala). But Academy voters should take note: you will really have to make reparations soon for not awarding Annette Bening yet (and certainly for passing her over in "Being Julia").
Amy Adams in “The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”- I thought Amy Adams was good but not outstanding in "The Fighter," and probably mostly because she was playing against type. Helena Bonham Carter is long overdue for this award, but like her co-star, Geoffrey Rush, she is overshadowed by Colin Firth. Jackie Weaver had huge early buzz for her role in "Animal Kingdom," which was very much like Melissa Leo's role in "The Fighter." It seemed like this was Melissa Leo's award (especially after already proving her chops in "Frozen River") but then she ran that self-promotion campaign, which I hear is a total turn-off by the other actors who insist that the nomination is enough. If that's the case, I am sorry for her unfortunate choice, but I would be happy that it does open the door for Hailee Steinfeld. Look, it's one thing to get lucky and get cast as a kid actor in a big break (think Drew Barrymore in "E.T."); but it's another thing entirely to dominate the screen with a commanding intellectual and emotional presence that seems impossible for one's age (think Jodie Foster in "Taxi Driver" or Natalie Portman in "The Professional"). So for showing "True Grit" at the filming age of 14, I will go out on a limb here and cheer on Hailee Steinfeld - I want the 14-year old unjaded ingenue to be making a speech and breaking hearts!
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”
- I loved all three of these movies, and all deserve the nomination. But who are we kidding? "Toy Story 3" had more emotional punch than some live action nominees this year (which is why it is also nominated for the "Best Picture" award), and oh yeah: it's a product of Pixar, the studio that simply dominates this category.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1”“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“True Grit”
- This category recognizes the overall artistic vision for the visual "picture" of the motion picture, inclusive of special effects (real or computer-generated), make-up, costumes, lighting, color, sets, etc. It usually goes to some kind of period drama ("The King's Speech" or "True Grit") or an effects-heavy movie ("Inception" or any "Harry Potter" movie) because the total look of all the individual effects has to have solid internal consistency. It also sometimes goes to the most visually bold movie (think color saturation, bright colors, repeated forms, and stylized shapes), and this year I think that means "Alice In Wonderland" will get its one award.
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“The Social Network”“True Grit”
- Okay, I always feel a need to explain my choice in this category every year. Cinematography is the camera work used in the movie: the tracking shots, the close-ups, the crazy angles, the dolly shots, the backlit scenes, etc. It is not supposed to award the movie with the prettiest landscapes ("True Grit") or the most sweeping vistas (if so, "127 Hours" was overlooked in this category) or the most edits/cuts between camera angles ("The Social Network"), although sometimes the Academy voters seem to go in that direction. "Inception" had some great camera work that rotated centers of gravity and created a great off-kilter feeling. "Black Swan" had dazzling and equally dizzying camera work that used lighting, shadows, mirrors, and close-ups very effectively. Those were my top two choices until I saw "The King's Speech." That became my pick because of cinematography that was almost imperceptible: the brilliant use of filming largely with a fish-eye lens to create a frustratingly claustrophobic tone, especially in close-ups without radically altering the shapes of faces. Combined with the writing and acting that portrayed a speech pathology in spoken word but more so in silence, that camera work really helped tell the story.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“I Am Love” “The King's Speech”
“The Tempest”
“True Grit”
- I've only seen still photos from "The Tempest" and "I Am Love" and thought the costumes in "True Grit" and "The King's Speech" were excellent but familiar. The costumes in "Alice In Wonderland" were quite literally from another world, so my vote is for Oscar to go down the rabbit hole into Wonderland.
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter” “The King's Speech”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”
- I think this is one of the hardest categories this year. I would pass over "The Fighter" and "True Grit" because as good as those were, they were also familiar in their genres. "The Social Network" displayed a full command of the moviemaking process from script to design and from acting to editing. "The King's Speech" is a fantastic major debut from a young director who has done more work on the small screen. For sheer boldness of vision, for perseverance and passionate commitment to that vision, and for storytelling that completely got to me (although I know not everyone had that experience), I want Darren Aronofsky to get it for "Black Swan" - a movie that elevated the "Single White Female"/Lifetime stalker-stolen identity-mean girl movie of the week to high art that was gutsy and driven. Overlooked in this category: John Cameron Mitchell, for a truly deft gentle hand in adapting "Rabbit Hole" from stage to screen - he is clearly much more than "Hedwig."
“Exit through the Gift Shop”
“Gasland”
“Inside Job”
“Restrepo” “Waste Land”
- For the first time, I did not get to see many of the nominated documentaries this year except for "Restrepo" and "Exit Through The Gift Shop," which were both good but not too memorable. Without an ovious frontrunner documentary that is themed to the Nazi Holocaust, I'm voting for the movie that has to do with the current financial crisis, by virtue of its timely relevance alone. (Why was "Waiting For 'Superman'" not included?!)
“Killing in the Name”
“Poster Girl”
“Strangers No More”
“Sun Come Up”
“The Warriors of Qiugang”
- Complete guess on this one: I'm choosing based on title alone (and my assumption that the title is connected to important human rights and environmental justice issues).
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
- The artistic choices in how all of these nominated films were edited together were all strong. But unlike my pick for cinematography (see above), I think "The Social Network" had the best use of intercutting camera shots to keep its high-energy pace.
“Biutiful”
“Dogtooth”
“In a Better World”
“Incendies”
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)”- Sadly, during my move from San Francisco to St. Louis and then since my new job started around the time that all art-house movie theaters handle the U.S. releases of the foreign language films that might get slated with an Oscar nomination, I have not seen a single one of this year's hopefuls. Ugh! Javier Bardem seems to be carrying the reputation of "Biutiful" on his own (which means not a lot of buzz for any other feature of the movie), but from what I know of the nominees, "Incendies" might have the most accessible story after that, and "Outside the Law" has the advantage of being history-based (but how many people can really fall in love with a movie about the Algerian independence from France...oh wait, it's a post-World War II revolutionary struggle...hmm...could that be enough to score the win?). I'm totally guessing "Incendies" - "Blame Canada" for the win if I'm right.
“Barney's Version”
“The Way Back”
“The Wolfman”
- Usually goes to the movie that needed the most stuff (e.g., hair, make-up, prosthetics, body paint, fake scars and injuries) to achieve a look. And that usually means a creature feature, so that's my pick.
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
- I loved the scores of all the nominees, but I thought the Golden Globe win for "The Social Network" was fully earned: slightly odd, slightly creepy, slightly rock and roll, and all edgy atonal music was a perfect atmospheric element in the motion picture.
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours"
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”- I didn't see "Tangled" and normally a Disney animated movie has a good track record in this category. And I'll admit it: even before her turn on "Glee," I was totally into and impressed with the soundtrack for "Country Strong," Gwyneth Paltrow and all. But Dido and A.R. Rahman crafted a perfect epilogue to the emotionally and physically harrowing "127 Hours." And yes, the song made me cry over the end credits. Would love to see it performed too!
“Day & Night”
“The Gruffalo”
“Let's Pollute”“The Lost Thing”
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)”
- This is the year that I finally saw all the nominated short films - hooray! "Day & Night" is super-cute, and popularly accessible as the pre-show short film before "Toy Story 3" (in some theaters) and it has the Pixar stamp of award domination going for it. But honestly, from now on I will always try to see these animated shorts because they were all so wonderful. Really? Um, yeah, they really were. "Madagascar, carnet de voyage" was literally a travel journal come to life as seemingly three-dimensional animated pages turning to tell a story in a variety of art styles (watercolor, pastel wash, colored pencil, animated props, photo-realistic, etc.) and it truly conveyed a feeling of a journey. "Let's Pollute" was an easy farce and "The Lost Thing" was a sweet fantasy. But if Pixar can give up one award just this once, I want it to go to "The Gruffalo" - I thought this very cute story-within-a-story had animation that came close to Pixar-quality, it was told completely in rhyming verse, based on a very cute and popular children's book, and the voice talent in "The Gruffalo" includes Robbie Coltraine, John Hurt, Tom Wilkinson, and (wait for it, wait for it) Helena Bonham Carter! So at least by proxy, she could claim part of the Oscar prize (finally) with a win for "The Gruffalo."
“The Confession”
“The Crush”
“God of Love”
“Na Wewe”
“Wish 143”- Just like the animated shorts, why have I not been watching all these nominees every year? The pressure of a short film running time must force very smart artistic decisions to tell great stories in an unbelievable tiny window of time. "The Confession" was a gripping and tragic story with some major twists and turns packed into 26 minutes and was an absolutely extraordinary screen debut for a young boy, Lewis Howlett. "The Crush" took a sweet childhood love story, and completely turned it upside down with the dramatic combination of a possibly obsessed little boy and a gun, and guess what - it still had a happy ending. "God Of Love" had all the quirkiness that could have been a full-length independent movie, complete with original music soundtrack. And "Wish 143" was a completely earnest hero-love-dying narrative. But "Na Wewe" is my pick because who knew that a short film set in the Hutu-Tutsi genocidal war of Burundi in 1994 could be gut-wrenching one moment but ultimately uplifting the next moment and at times comedic while making a statement about the fallacy of "pure" race distinctions in our modern global village? I loved all of these nominees, but this one felt the most substantial (and along with "The Confession" could easily be marketed to a larger popular audience).
“Inception”
“Toy Story 3”
“Tron: Legacy”
“True Grit”
“Unstoppable”- Any special effects-driven movie tends to win in this category (past winners include "Raiders Of The Lost Ark," "E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial," "Aliens," Jurassic Park," "Speed," "Titanic," and "The Dark Knight"), because this award recognizes the craft of assembling dialogue, sound effects, and music into the final motion picture. "Toy Story 3" had dialogue (but more memorable visual effects), "Inception" and "Unstoppable" had sound effects, "Tron: Legacy" had music by Daft Punk. I think "True Grit" had strengths in those three key elements, so I'm picking that one.
“Inception”
“The King's Speech” “Salt”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”
- Sound mixing involves not only capturing all the sound on a movie set, but also creating the sounds that don't exist (e.g., any dinosaur roar in "Jurassic Park" had to be sound mixed because there are no live dinosaurs in a zoo enclosure that a boom mike can be lowered into in order to record audio, so the sound of a car engine, a lion, and a screeching tire might all get mixed together to make that sound). So I am picking "Inception" because someone had to create the sounds of an entire world folding in half.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1”
“Hereafter”
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2”- Perhaps the last "Harry Potter" movie will sweep the 2012 awards (like "The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King") as a tribute to the whole series. In the meantime, "Inception" was the movie with big splashy visual effects that was also a critical and popular favorite. Bingo.
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3” “True Grit”
“Winter's Bone”
- Even with his fictionalized freedoms, Aaron Sorkin's screenplay for "The Social Network" defined that movie's success and appeal. I think this is his award to lose, and it will be his to take home.
“Another Year”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech” - This screenplay category is the tougher one to call, and I am at a disadvantage because I never saw "Another Year." "The Fighter" felt too familiar, as did "Inception" (even with its layered complexity, it was basically a big ol' action sci-fi adventure). "The King's Speech" was brilliant, but I am picking "The Kids Are All Right" because I want that small, humble, smart, movie that has a lot of heart to come away with something.
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter's Bone”
- The biggest and final prize of the night always has many critics and pundits and fans guessing and arguing. I loved the writing of "The Kids Are All Right" more than the film itself. "127 Hours" was an excellent adaptation of a real-life hero struggle that became the stuff of legend and has a true tour-de-force acting performance in it that made the potentially horrifying instead be the mystically captivating. I loved "Winter's Bone" as a small independent film that just packed a wallop. "Toy Story 3" had amazing animation (of course) but was also completely lovable for its sentimentality. "The Fighter" had some impressive performances, but I thought it was "Rocky" meets "The Wrestler" and while "True Grit," had many things going for it like good acting and surprising restrained violence for a Coen brothers wild west saga, it also felt fairly familiar. I never understood the hype around "Inception" - I never thought it was mind-blowingly confusing and I thought it was decent and original sci-fi movie, but nothing much more grand or complex beyond that. "The Social Network" was my pick when I first saw it, then "Black Swan" was my top pick for a long time because of its dazzling originality. And yes, I have managed to see all ten (count em: 10!) Best Picture nominees, so that leads me to this conclusion...I think "The King's Speech" will walk away the big winner for the combination of: (a) the sheer number of its nominations, (b) the incredible acting ensemble, (c) the dominance of its lead actor, (d) its visual appeal, (e) the fact that it is expertly filmed, directed, designed, and edited, (f) its basis in a historical narrative, and last but not least, (g) it has the kind of triumphant and victorious and uplifting finale that signals the "feel good" happy ending of a movie that is easy to remember, reward, and re-watch over and over.
I'll get back into blog-land after I tally up my guesses on my ballot...phew!
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