2010 Oscar predictions

Well, I did pretty well this year and managed to see the almost all of the movies nominated in major categories for the Golden Globe Awards and the Academy Awards. So here are my predictions of who will win and who should win at the Oscars on Sunday, March 7. Is your ballot filled out yet?

Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
Should Win: No idea.
I didn't get to any of the festivals showing all of the "short" category nominees, so I am going by title alone.

Short Film, Live Action
Will Win: "Kavi"
Should Win: No idea.
I didn't get to any of the festivals showing all of the "short" category nominees, so I am going by title alone.

Short Film, Animated
Will Win: "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty"
Should Win: No idea.
I didn't get to any of the festivals showing all of the "short" category nominees, so I am going by title alone.

Film Editing
Will Win: "Avatar" or "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" or "Avatar"
Both of these movies had a lot of choices to make for film edits or extended shots. Both executed them well. My heart sides with "The Hurt Locker" because it's more artistically challenging to edit actual film and not pressing and ESC+Undo function on a computer.

Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: "Avatar"
If nothing else, this movie was all about visual spectacle, and it delivered that (in 2D, 3D IMAX, or 3D formats). I would say this is the most secure win for "Avatar."

Sound Editing
Will Win/Should Win: "The Hurt Locker"
A lot of movies used sound and sound effects well, but "The Hurt Locker" edited the widest range of sounds: the expected bomb effects, ambient sound, and (to harrowing effect) silence. The artistry of those choices should be awarded.

Sound Mixing
Will Win/Should Win: "Avatar"
This is the second technical category that should go to "Avatar." "Sound Mixing" means making the sounds for a movie. That includes making sounds that don't exist or that are hard to capture (like mixing the roar of a lion in a zoo with the sound of a train speeding on a railroad with the trumpeting of an elephant to create the "voice" of an alien monster). So for creating the sounds of an entirely imaginary world in the future, I will credit "Avatar."

Documentary Feature
Will Win/Should Win: "The Cove"
I am biased towards the two movies in this category that I saw: "The Cove" and "Food, Inc." Both are "must-see" documentaries in my book. The latter reached a wider audience and has been featured on shows like "The Martha Stewart Show" and probably has more water-cooler-talk associated with it. But the former has made me completely swear off every supporting a marine park, zoo, or aquarium that has captive whales or dolphins. And those of you who know me and my lifelong love of marine biology, especially the cetaceans, will appreciate that it takes some impressive documentary for me to give up ever seeing those animals in captivity again.

Makeup
Will Win/Should Win: "Star Trek"
"The Young Victoria" might have a shot at this because this award usually goes to the science fiction adventure or the period romance. I'm guessing that the Academy voters will throw a bone to the blockbuster hit in the Star Trek franchise.

Costume Design
Will Win: "The Young Victoria"
Should Win: "Coco Before Chanel" or "Nine"
This award also usually goes to period films, so "The Young Victoria" or "Bright Star" would be the frontrunners. Frankly, "Bright Star" bored me and seemed more visually bleak to me. So I think the more uplifting "The Young Victoria" will win it. but I thought the costumes in "Coco Before Chanel" and "Nine" were more interesting and more varied (and yes, I secretly wish that a musical movie like "Nine" would win at least one award).

Cinematography
Will Win/Should Win: "The White Ribbon"
Remember that the title of this category does not mean "lots of pretty images on the screen," even though it sometimes goes to the movie with the most sweeping vistas and aesthetically gorgeous sunsets and landscapes, which is a popular and critical error, I think. "Cinematography" means camera work: how does the camera move, what does the camera focus in on or shoot out of focus, are there long tracking shots, was everything done on handheld cameras, etc. If you consider that, a movie like "Avatar" or "The Hurt Locker" are strong contenders. But the German movie "The White Ribbon" had very powerful camera shots: sometimes fluid, sometimes angular, sometimes strange and emotionally confusing long single tracking shots, that all built up the eerie, creepy, and sinister feeling that was essential to the movie.

Art Direction
Will Win/Should Win: "Avatar"
Just like the Visual Effects award, I think the visual spectacle that is "Avatar" should win this one, even over the period art direction of "The Young Victoria" and "Sherlock Holmes" or "Nine."

Original Song
Will Win/Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
This award usually goes to the song that is bolstered by the obvious support of being sung by a reigning diva or being featured in a musical. Since the original songs added to the musical "Nine" were not even nominated here, the most musical movie left is "Crazy Heart." And it helps that this song was co-written by T Bone Burnett and performed by Jeff Bridges, both current Academy darlings. And the song works beautifully in the movie.

Original Score
Will Win: "Avatar"
Should Win: "Up"
I'm split about this one. I hope "Up" will win, but the score for "Avatar" did lend it a kind of cinematic majesty that complemented the visual effects. Academy voters may be swayed enough to give "Avatar" another win, even though the much more humble and emotionally powerful score for "Up" really deserves it.

Animated Feature
Will Win: "Up"
Should Win: "Coraline"
Another win for Pixar, and very well deserved (don't even get me started on the non-dialogue sequence of the married couple through the years near the start of the film - gets me every time!). But the PG-13 creepiness of "Coraline" and artisty involved in the mechanics and design of that stop-motion 3D gem deserved more audiences and more praise (as did the originality of "Fantastic Mr. Fox").

Foreign Language Film
Will Win/Should Win: "A Prophet"
The only movie in this category I've seen is "The White Ribbon" and it was my pick before the Golden Globe Awards (which it won, for good reasons). So I am basing this pick on some reviews, but also for the trailer of "A Prophet" which felt a bit familiar to me, but only because it reminded me (in tone and imagery) of another Oscar winner, "The Godfather." Last year, "Departures" won this category over the two movies I had seen ("The Class" and "Waltz With Bashir," which were both my picks), so I'm siding with history and predicting a win for the movie I haven't seen.

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: "Up In The Air"
Should Win: "District 9" or "An Education"
The screenplays of my "should win" picks were bright and greatly expanded the original source material, but "Up In The Air" is a critical and popular favorite that packs the most timely emotional punch.

Original Screenplay
Will Win: "Inglorious Basterds"
Should Win: "The Hurt Locker" or "The Messenger" or "A Serious Man"
The originality of "Up" came in many components, but not necessarily in its basic premise of the grumpy old man and the wide-eyed kid. "A Serious Man" was a dark comedy that was a clever play on the complexities of spirituality set in perfectly set 1960s milieu. "The Messenger" was a brilliantly intense character study that felt like two tightly wound soldiers about to explode in a rage of emotions at any time. And of course, "The Hurt Locker" was very intelligent writing (and maybe the recent controversy of an alleged plagiarism lawsuit broke the news after the ballots were all mailed in). So this is a highly competitive prize this year. I give it to the movie that was the ultimate macabre, smart, funny, clever, farcical, revenge story: hooray for the Jews obliterating the Nazis, as only Quentin Tarantino could deliver it.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win/Should Win: Mo'Nique
If ever the Golden Globes could predict an Oscar winner, this is it. I don't know how she did it, but I do know what Mo'Nique did in "Precious:" she ripped my heart out and made me so angry and sad that I cried from the inside out. This was a career-making performance (in the way Jennifer Hudson had "Dreamgirls"), and this is her time. Brava! More, please.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win/Should Win: Christoph Waltz
The toughest competition for the odds-on favorite, in my opinion, is Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger" (a tough, frightening, and tortured character performance). But Christoph Waltz played smart source material brilliantly: never over-the-top caricature. Always over-the-top insanity. Fine line to tiptoe around, but he did it.

Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Sandra Bullock or Meryl Streep
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Yes, I know I chickened out on this call. Let me explain. Of all the "Best Picture" nominees, "The Blind Side" is the only one I have not seen. Why? Well, partly because I think it's a made-for-TV movie that made it to the big screen with a story I've seen many times before. And worse yet, that hackneyed story is also (mildly?) insulting and offensive: the rich white family (or brash Texan woman) takes in the poor Black down-and-out, who of course turns his life around with their help in the only way he can: through professional sports. Yawn. I'm sure Sandra Bullock deserves all the praise she is getting, and I can imagine she carried this movie. But as much as I like her, I'm not convinced (and neither is Sandra Bullock) that her performance was better acting than Meryl Streep, who was arguably the most enjoyable and buoyant part of "Julie & Julia." I know Meryl already has two statuettes, but she deserves more, and I think she is long overdue for #3, 12 years after "Sophie's Choice." And Sandra can wait. Isn't there a "Speed 3" sequel she could do to win another MTV Movie Award?

Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Colin Firth
Jeff Bridges has his role-of-a-lifetime in "Crazy Heart." It's an anguished, genuinely emotional performance that shows off his acting as much as his singing (for real). It has more heart and hope than "The Wrestler" but hits some of those familiar notes that had me wondering, "Should I be cheering for this guy?" And then I realized that when a performance makes me struggle to accept the character, it's probably doing everything right because that's how real-life is - we like and don't like qualities in everyone. (Colin Firth's performance in "A Single Man" is sadly overshadowed by "Crazy Heart" and no doubt has been seen by far fewer people. But it should be watched and studied by every actor for its lessons in evocative acting, in outward burst of emotion and in subtle silences - also brilliant.)

Director
Will Win/Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Not only is it high time that a woman win this award, but Kathryn Bigelow directed the bejeezus out of this war story: it was terrifying, gut-wrenching, emotional, real, thrilling, sad, and powerful - just as any war and every good war story should be. I give credit to James Cameron for not only directing "Avatar" but for directing all of the new technology that went into "Avatar." But his movie was all fantasy. Kathryn Bigelow worked with reality. And it was unforgettable.

Motion Picture
Will Win/Should Win: "The Hurt Locker"
There. I said it. I enjoyed watching "Avatar," don't get me wrong. But the emphasis there is that I enjoyed watching it. Come on, be serious: there's good reason why "Avatar" is not nominated for Original Screenplay. The story (what little cohesive story there was) was weak. A motion picture is supposed to tell a story, and the narrative of "The Hurt Locker" was executed with greater precision and focus than anything proposed in the year 2154 of "Avatar." "The Hurt Locker" also painfully forces us to look at the insanity of our own current wars, instead of imagining a future war on Pandora, as beautiful as it was to look at.

So there you have it. We'll see how my ballot scores. Agree or disagree or just want to comment on my predictions? Go ahead and post a comment. After all, it's just my set of opinions. (But I will be cheering on my picks for sure!)