As a refresher/reminder, I have already blogged my reviews of the "25 Must-See Movies" to prepare myself this year: you know it's all about doing the homework and the preparation (so click here for those additional comments).
And for a refresher/reminder of what these categories are about (especially the more esoteric ones that everyone else will skip for more food or drinks or bathroom breaks), refer to my Oscars blog post from 2011 by clicking here.
Choices will be sorted into three considerations (a change from how I have done this in previous years):
S = "S"hould win, or the nominee I think is most deserving;
P = My "P"ick, or the nominee I want to win (will be highlighted in light blue); and
W = "W"ill win, or the nominee I think will walk away with the honor of the statuette and the title.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- S = Rise of the Planet of the Apes: since this movie was not included in the Best Picture category (as sci-fi movies often get overlooked there), this might be its best shot at any win, and the effects really were incredible and made that movie (and its apes) come to life.
- P/W = Hugo: the 3D visuals of this movie were brighter, more colorful, and less morose than the final installment of the "Harry Potter" franchise. I saw both in 3D, and I think "Hugo" more successfully used visual effects to tell its story in motion picture medium. The other nominees are expected, but their visual effects were also just at the "meets expectations" level.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- S/P = Hugo: My pick is biased by my love of the original source, which I still think is a gorgeously crafted tale in drawings and narrative text.
- W = The Descendants: I have not read the original sources of the other nominated films, so I will defer on popular and critical buzz on this one...along with its Writers Guild win.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
- S/P/W = Midnight In Paris: I have only seen three of the five nominees, but I think this screenplay was the only one that was both well written and also truly original. A movie like "Bridesmaids" was great for its genre, but it still fit in with that genre's formula. "Midnight In Paris" may feel formulaic for a Woody Allen quirky work, but that's not its own movie genre, and this one kind of breaks the mold for period romances, romantic comedies, independent fantasy, etc.
SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
- S = Drive: There were stunning moments of stillness and quiet that punctuated this otherwise high-octane action thriller's loud violence, and cutting and interlacing all of those scenes with some degree of restraint elevated this movie from the rest in its genre.
- P/W = Hugo: Arranging all the of the real sounds of dialogue over layers of created sounds of wind and snow or the hustle and bustle of a train station required far more deft artistry than editing the sounds of motorcycle/car engines and screams or metal crashing or gunshots and bombs exploding.
SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
- S/P/W = Hugo: This category is about the creation of sounds that can't otherwise be recorded. Normally even a terrible sci-fi movie like the latest "Transformers" cacophony would have a lock on this, since you can't really place a microphone in Chicago and record an actual sentient alien robot destroying a building. But this year, the addition of "Hugo" to the mix means that the usual Michael Bay loud crashes and bangs have to compete with much more delicate and nuanced sounds like winding clockworks, steam whistles, train engines, and crowds moving in imaginary train stations. I'm hoping "Hugo" gets recognized for its technical craftsmanship here.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
Real in Rio (Rio)
- S/P/W = Man or Muppet. First of all, is there anyone who does not love The Muppets? Second of all, this is a surprisingly tough neck-and-neck race and considering how much I love the other nominee's credentials (Sergio Mendes, Carlinho Brown, and Siedah Garrett - who has worked with both Michael Jackson and Madonna) this category is a tough one for me to call. And then 'thirdary,' why are there only two nominees? Totally overlooked was the hauntingly sparse song from "Albert Nobbs" (co-written by its star, Glenn Close), heartbreakingly performed (as usual) by Sinead O'Connor. I would have loved to have seen her perform live (once again) with either symphonic orchestral accompaniment, or nothing at all, and that a capella performance would have sealed the deal.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
- S/P = The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore: this was a gorgeous visual treat that was matched with a perfectly sentimental story (that highlighted the magic of reading books - love that!). There's even a best selling iPhone app for this. Remember the first 10 minutes of "Up" - you know, that opening flashback encapsulated life-in-love timeline of a sweet couple that broke your heart and made you cry like a baby? Yeah, I know. Put that kind of heartfelt emotion into this category that you never even pay attention to, and you have my choice(s).
- W = La Luna. Woah, what gives? After all the praise for the flying books movie, I think another movie will win it? Well, quite possibly. Why? Because "La Luna" is a short film created by the animated film juggernaut that is Disney's Pixar Studios. And quite frankly, this is another cute entry from them, but if I get this prediction wrong and my heart's choice wins, I will be very happy to lose the point. (Surprise bonus: my YouTube crush, Nick Pitera, worked on "La Luna" - go ahead, look him up. Or better yet, just follow these links: "A Whole New World," "Don't Stop Believing," "Edge Of Glory.")
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
- S/P = Raju. Hard to believe this film with its characters, scenery, emotion, and plot all fit into a block of time that still qualifies it as a "short" film. It was fully developed and deeply moving.
- W = The Shore. With the exception of "Time Freak," I thought all of the nominees were original and quirky and used the short form genre to the best possible effect. "The Shore" was the closest to a Hollywood mainstream movie because it had the most conventional storyline sprinkled with moments of (mostly) humor and (sometimes) drama. So I think its overall accessibility will result in enough votes to win.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
- S/P/W = The Artist. Hard for me to pick against John Williams ("The Adventures Of Tintin" and "War Horse," which had an exceptionally good sweeping orchestral score) or Howard Shore ("Hugo") because they both have such highly developed expertise in this category. But let's face it: the silent film form of "The Artist" relied on its score to tell a story without the spoken language that would otherwise be needed. And that original score included tap dance numbers! Score a big win for Ludovic Bource, who has previously scored mostly short films but won the Golden Globe for this category last month.
FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
- S = The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo: for its thankfully restrained treatment of potentially gory violence, with no loss in impact.
- P = Hugo: for masterful cuts that drove the pace and defined perspective in a 3D environment.
- W = The Artist: I fear the academy voters will equate "editing" with "overall quality" so I think this three-way split in my thinking will be resolved in favor of the movie that was most likely to put a smile on your face.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
- S/P/W = A Separation. For the first time, I was not able to see any of the nominated films this year. Wah wah. So relying on critical mentions and current political affairs ("A Separation" is the rare nominee from Iran) alone, I'm making a singular prediction here that I hope is still a safe bet.
MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
The Iron Lady
- S/P = The Iron Lady: I think it's one thing for Meryl Streep to have played the role of Margaret Thatcher, and another thing for the makeup artists to have aged her so convincingly over many decades.
- W = Albert Nobbs: methinks the Academy will favor any transgender performance (in not one, but two characters) as a solid demonstration of what can be achieved with makeup.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
- S = Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory: this story of the "West Memphis 3," has (for almost two decades) been the go-to narrative about bias and criminal injustice, and has popular culture involvement of known celebrities like Natalie Maines and Eddie Vedder behind it, so the connection to the voting members of the Academy may serve it well.
- P = Pina: Wim Wenders practically transforms the documentary genre with another masterful application of 3D technology (his other venture "Cave Of Forgotten Dreams" was also stunning, but bogged down with his usual eccentric and effusive narration), this time letting the brief interviews and extraordinary performances of real dancers pay homage to a visionary choreographer. Truly a spectacle to see on the big screen.
- W = Hell And Back Again: I didn't see the other nominees besides the two I describe above, but I know this is a documentary about a United States Marine who returns from serving in the war in Afghanistan with a badly injured leg and post-traumatic stress. So, subject matter alone in a U.S. election year wins this one serious points.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
- S = The Tsunami And The Cherry Blossom: I have not seen any of this year's nominees, but I have seen scenes from this movie and the footage is heartbreaking.
- P = God Is The Bigger Elvis: a movie about a successful Hollywood actress who leaves behind her life to answer a calling and become a nun? Sounds cool enough to me to carry its weight in this category.
- W = Saving Face: one of the great impacts of documentary filmmaking comes from social activism in this medium, and any movie that can tell a story about the terrible attacks on women in Pakistan that involve perpetrators throwing acid at women's faces has got to win to bring some necessary attention to a horrifying crime (also in a U.S. election year when proposed unnecessary invasive medical probes are mistreating women in this country in similarly horrifying ways).
COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
- S/W = Anonymous: the Oscars love their period dramas in this category, and there are quite a few to choose from this year, but this one is set in the fictionalized world of Shakespeare (and the other period contenders like "Jane Eyre" and "W.E." were either critically panned or commercially unsuccessful).
- P = W.E.: despite what I said above, I'm going to cheer on my girl, Madge, based on the stills I've seen of her directorial (and co-writing) debut. It may not be Shakespeare, but at least these costumes covered a range of periods and all seem as gorgeous to watch as her Super Bowl 2012 halftime show!
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
- S = Chico & Rita: I am an instant fan of any animated film that is intended for adult audiences (like "Persepolis" or "Waltz With Bashir") because it recognizes the imaginative freedom allowed in this genre. So although I can't see this movie in St. Louis for several more weeks, I have already fallen in love with the trailers.
- P/W = Rango: not only was this a commercial and critical success, but the story was original and the animation was exceptionally sharp in challenging details like bright sunlight, moving shadows, and reflections in water. The voice talent of Johnny Depp can't possibly hurt its chances, either.
ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
- S/P = Hugo: a visual treat like this movie deserves recognition for its production and set designs.
- W = The Artist: another visual treat, this time limited to a black and white palette to show off every exacting choice in details that will probably do well for the category's title.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
- S/P = War Horse: although it can not even come close to the stage production that had me applauding and crying like a baby (sometimes all at once), "War Horse" had some gorgeous camera work that captured the darkness of World War I battles, contrasted with the lush verdant sun-soaked peace of an English countryside.
- W = The Tree Of Life: the academy always equates this category with "pretty visuals" (which maddens me to no end every year) and there is somewhat of an industry upwelling of support for Terrence Malick's film (which confuses me to no end this year), which did have striking images, if nothing else.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
- S = Max von Sydow: for all the talk this year of the breakthrough revival of the silent film genre, Max von Sydow's silent performance was a standout emotional feature in the otherwise overworked motion picture adaptation of the Jonathan Safran Foer novel.
- P/W = Christopher Plummer: his finely handled performance was an emotional center in an otherwise underpaced movie, plus he seems to have the undefeated support of his professional colleagues. Okay, who wouldn't want to see "Captain Von Trapp" accept an award after all these years of seeing him sing "Edelweiss" in television broadcasts of "The Sound of Music" - come on, that's a true return to Old Hollywood!
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
- S = Berenice Bejo: I thought she carried the heart of "The Artist" with an effervescent performance but she seems to be disproportionately ignored for her contributions to that film (I mean even the cute dog is getting more buzz - what's up with that? Go, go, "Peppy Miller!").
- P/W = Octavia Spencer: she has all the momentum to win this award for stealing every scene she occupied in the ensemble feature.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
- S = Demian Bichir: I didn't see this movie yet, but I think he is a great talent just based on what I have seen in the coming attractions preview and hearing him in an NPR interview. (And totally overlooked in this category was Michael Shannon in "Take Shelter.")
- P/W = Jean Dujardin. First of all, Gary Oldman is a terrific actor, but he was in a mess of a movie that hasn't been nominated for anything else (translation: the Academy is paying him due respect with the nomination). Secondly, Brad Pitt showed us a fully formed character and not just his usual smirk in a smile or a twinkle in his eye, but other nominees were better (translation: the Academy is paying him due respect with the nomination). Thirdly, I'm tired of the buzz over George Clooney and I still think in this movie he is performing like...well, like George Clooney. I think he had a fine leading role part written for any actor, but I'm not convinced that George Clooney owned it. Finally, Jean Dujardin defined the movie that carries his character's title, he did it with panache and style, with dexterity and grace, and even with tap dancing shoes. (Oh,and have you noticed how devastatingly charming he is? - I think Academy voters will pick him just to see him get air time, and I'd support that.)
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn"
- S = Glenn Close: she championed the making of this movie for two decades and then gave me all the heartbreak, suffering, and loss that could come with a lifetime destroyed by broken dreams and secret identities. She inhabited the role completely: from obvious makeup and costumes and posture, to more subtle cadence of speech and non-verbal movements.
- P = Meryl Streep: just as Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo carried the plot and heart of "The Artist," Meryl Streep not only imitated Margaret Thatcher, she completely transformed herself into a known public figure without resorting to obvious caricatures, and she played the role over an imagined timespan of several decades. The movie itself is a bit of a mess as far as biopics go, and is far from being a balanced historical portrait of the woman, but Meryl Streep is truly a master class wonder to behold. There's a reason why she holds the record of 17 Academy Award nominations (14 in this lead category), but inexplicably she has not won since "Sophie's Choice" in 1982, so I think the Academy has a lot of making up to do here (for "Silkwood," "The French Lieutenant's Woman," "Out Of Africa," "A Cry In The Dark," Postcards From The Edge," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Julie and Julia," and "Mamma Mia!" - ha!...just kidding on that last one).
- W = Kate Winslet, for "Midlred Pierce" (oops, wrong year, wrong awards)! No, no, the winner will be: Viola Davis. Having cheered for Viola Davis ever since she dazzled me and broke my heart in the film adaptation of the Broadway production of "Doubt," I applaud any accolade she earns on stage or on screen. I hesitated on picking this category for the longest time because I still think Meryl Streep gave the best performance in the role that had the most air time in the nominee's movie. Viola Davis had a great lead role but her lines and character depended on the rest of the ensemble in what I thought was an otherwise fluffy formulaic movie. But when Meryl Streep chose to honor Viola Davis with her own shout-out, well, that kind of praise won me over. The Screen Actors Guild award to the ensemble of "The Help" might help Viola Davis narrowly edge out Meryl Streep, who I hope comes back to claim a win with her eventual 18th nomination. If my pick is correct, however, I also want Viola Davis to come back and win on her eventual 3rd nomination to add to her 2 Tony Awards.
DIRECTING
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
- S = Martin Scorsese: for doing something completely different from what he usually does and doing it well (as opposed to Terrence Malick, who ventured into completely genre-defying territory but doing it less-than-well).
- P/W = Before Michel Hazanavicius took the helm for "The Artist," I doubt anyone else in Hollywood would have backed a silent movie, or a black-and-white movie, let alone one that is both. But if a director is charged with pulling together a team to craft a captivating experience that will tell a story artfully and beautifully, then this award is all his. He took an original screenplay, added scenic design, score, costumes, and a cast that looks thrilled to be narrating this tale and gave us a bit of movie magic this year. Bravo.
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
- S/P/W = The Artist. I had early hopes for "War Horse" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" but I did not think they lived up to their promise or potential. I think the best movies out of this crop of nine nominees are the two that pay tribute to the industry's craft: "Hugo" and "The Artist." All indications are that "The Artist" will take home the award for its sheer joyful and refreshing originality (although if "The Artist" and "Hugo" were both available on Blu-Ray tomorrow and I could only afford one, I would probably buy "Hugo" and know that I would watch that film many more times than "The Artist").
So there you have it: my predictions for the 2012 Oscars. Is your ballot filled out yet? I will blog an update after the awards with my score tallied, and you better share any Oscar betting pool wins with me if I helped!
Before any "...and the award goes to..." announcements, where are my pajama pants and my corkscrew?
P.S. If predicting these awards is too much for you, take a break and watch my statistics lesson from 2005. Maybe there's a simpler formula for doing it after all?
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